Di seguito riportiamo – senza alcun commento – alcune parti di un lungo articolo di Spengler, un analista che scrive per Asia Times, sulla «primavera araba». Spengler naturalmente è un nom de plume che avevamo intervistato in passato (1).
The numbers thrown out by the IMF are stupefying. "In the current baseline scenario," wrote the IMF on May 27, "the external financing needs of the region’s oil importers is projected to exceed $160 billion during 2011-13.
As of 2010, the combined current account deficit (that is, external financing needs) of Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Morocco and Tunisia was about $15 billion a year.
"In the next 18 months," the IMF added, "a greater part of these financing needs will need to be met from the international community because of more cautious market sentiments during the uncertain transition."
And the IMF’s $160 billion number is only "external financing"; that is, maintaining imports into a busted economy. It doesn’t do a thing to repair busted economies.
Of course, the IMF’s admission that Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen can’t meet the majority of their import bill without foreign aid does not increase the probability that these countries will obtain financing on that scale.
(1) Intervista a Spengler. Novembre 2008
As of 2010, the combined current account deficit (that is, external financing needs) of Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Morocco and Tunisia was about $15 billion a year.
"In the next 18 months," the IMF added, "a greater part of these financing needs will need to be met from the international community because of more cautious market sentiments during the uncertain transition."
And the IMF’s $160 billion number is only "external financing"; that is, maintaining imports into a busted economy. It doesn’t do a thing to repair busted economies.
Of course, the IMF’s admission that Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen can’t meet the majority of their import bill without foreign aid does not increase the probability that these countries will obtain financing on that scale.
(1) Intervista a Spengler. Novembre 2008
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